Design of Physical System Experiments Using Bayes Linear Emulation and History Matching Methodology with Application to Arabidopsis Thaliana

There are many physical processes within our world which scientists aim to understand. Computer models representing these processes are fundamental to achieving such understanding. Bayes linear emulation is a powerful tool for comprehensively exploring the behaviour of computationally intensive models. History matching is a method for finding the set of inputs to a computer model for which the corresponding model outputs give acceptable matches to observed data, given our state of uncertainty regarding the model itself, the measurements, and, if used, the emulators representing the model. This thesis provides three major developments to the current methodology in this area. We develop sequential history matching methodology by splitting the available data into groups and gaining insight about the information obtained from each group. Such insight is then realised through a wide array of novel visualisations. We develop emulation techniques for the case when there are hypersurfaces of input space across which we have essentially perfect knowledge about the model’s behaviour. Finally, we have developed the use of history matching methodology as criteria for the design of physical system experiments. We outline the general framework for design in a history matching setting, before discussing many extensions, including the performance of a comprehensive robustness analysis on our design choice. We outline our novel methodology on a model of hormonal crosstalk in the roots of an Arabidopsis plant

Patient-reported outcomes in the aging population of adults with congenital heart disease: results from APPROACH-IS.

The congenital heart disease (CHD) population now comprises an increasing number of older persons in their 6th decade of life and beyond. We cross-sectionally evaluated patient-reported outcomes (PROs) in persons with CHD aged 60 years or older, and contrasted these with PROs of younger patients aged 40-59 years and 18-39 years. Adjusted for demographic and medical characteristics, patients ≥60 years had a lower Physical Component Summary, higher Mental Component Summary, and lower anxiety (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale-Anxiety) scores than patients in the two younger categories. For satisfaction with life, older persons had a higher score than patients aged 40-59 years. Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02150603

SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in households with and without asthmatic/allergic children: The Human Epidemiology and Response to SARS-CoV-2 study (HEROS)

Rationale: Whether children and people with asthma and allergic diseases are at increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection is not known. Neither is their role in household transmission. Methods: Biweekly nasal sample collections and weekly surveys were conducted to identify incident SARS-CoV-2 infections among children (\u3c13 \u3eyears) and teenagers (13-21 years) enrolled in asthma/allergic disease focused cohorts, and their household members, from May 2020-February 2021. Probability of subject/household infections and household transmissions were calculated using time-to-event analyses, and factors associated with infection and transmission risk using regression analyses. Results: Household (N=1,394) and subject (N=4,142) SARS-CoV-2 infection probability was 25.8% and 14.0%, respectively, and was similar for children (14.0%,CI:8.0-19.6%), teenagers (12.1%,CI:8.2-15.9%), and adults (14.0%,CI:9.5-18.4%). Infections were symptomatic in 24.5% of children, 41.2% of teenagers, and 62.5% of adults. Exposure to both symptomatic (aHR=87.39,CI:58.02-131.63) and asymptomatic (aHR=27.80,CI:17.16–45.03) infected household members was a risk factor for infection. Food allergy was associated with decreased infection risk (aHR=0.50,CI:0.32-0.81), but asthma was not (aHR=1.04,CI:0.73-1.46). Household infection risk was associated with attending in-person school (aHR=1.67,CI:1.09-2.57). Household secondary attack rate was 57.7%. Decreased risk of household transmission was associated with teen age, lower BMI, and lower viral load. Conclusions: Asthma does not increase risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, while food allergy is protective. SARS-CoV-2 infection risk in children is similar to that of teenagers and adults. SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk and secondary attack rate is much higher than previously estimated in households with children, likely driven by the high frequency of asymptomatic childhood infections

Observing the Evolution of the Universe

How did the universe evolve? The fine angular scale (l>1000) temperature and polarization anisotropies in the CMB are a Rosetta stone for understanding the evolution of the universe. Through detailed measurements one may address everything from the physics of the birth of the universe to the history of star formation and the process by which galaxies formed. One may in addition track the evolution of the dark energy and discover the net neutrino mass. We are at the dawn of a new era in which hundreds of square degrees of sky can be mapped with arcminute resolution and sensitivities measured in microKelvin. Acquiring these data requires the use of special purpose telescopes such as the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), located in Chile, and the South Pole Telescope (SPT). These new telescopes are outfitted with a new generation of custom mm-wave kilo-pixel arrays. Additional instruments are in the planning stages.Comment: Science White Paper submitted to the US Astro2010 Decadal Survey. Full list of 177 author available at http://cmbpol.uchicago.ed

Imaging biomarker roadmap for cancer studies.

Imaging biomarkers (IBs) are integral to the routine management of patients with cancer. IBs used daily in oncology include clinical TNM stage, objective response and left ventricular ejection fraction. Other CT, MRI, PET and ultrasonography biomarkers are used extensively in cancer research and drug development. New IBs need to be established either as useful tools for testing research hypotheses in clinical trials and research studies, or as clinical decision-making tools for use in healthcare, by crossing 'translational gaps' through validation and qualification. Important differences exist between IBs and biospecimen-derived biomarkers and, therefore, the development of IBs requires a tailored 'roadmap'. Recognizing this need, Cancer Research UK (CRUK) and the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) assembled experts to review, debate and summarize the challenges of IB validation and qualification. This consensus group has produced 14 key recommendations for accelerating the clinical translation of IBs, which highlight the role of parallel (rather than sequential) tracks of technical (assay) validation, biological/clinical validation and assessment of cost-effectiveness; the need for IB standardization and accreditation systems; the need to continually revisit IB precision; an alternative framework for biological/clinical validation of IBs; and the essential requirements for multicentre studies to qualify IBs for clinical use.Development of this roadmap received support from Cancer Research UK and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (grant references A/15267, A/16463, A/16464, A/16465, A/16466 and A/18097), the EORTC Cancer Research Fund, and the Innovative Medicines Initiative Joint Undertaking (grant agreement number 115151), resources of which are composed of financial contribution from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) and European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA) companies' in kind contribution

Empirical Legal Studies Before 1940: A Bibliographic Essay

The modern empirical legal studies movement has well-known antecedents in the law and society and law and economics traditions of the latter half of the 20th century. Less well known is the body of empirical research on legal phenomena from the period prior to World War II. This paper is an extensive bibliographic essay that surveys the English language empirical legal research from approximately 1940 and earlier. The essay is arranged around the themes in the research: criminal justice, civil justice (general studies of civil litigation, auto accident litigation and compensation, divorce, small claims, jurisdiction and procedure, civil juries), debt and bankruptcy, banking, appellate courts, legal needs, legal profession (including legal education), and judicial staffing and selection. Accompanying the essay is an extensive bibliography of research articles, books, and reports